SAN DIEGO — As of Monday, national polls show former Vice President Joe Biden with a significant lead over President Donald Trump, but could the polls be wrong? Would a surge of Trump supporters showing up on Election Day to cast their ballots widely shift the election in President Trump's favor?
UC San Diego Political Professor Thad Kousser said there's always the possibility that the polls are wrong. However, he said in order to win, President Trump would need a much larger polling error than in the 2016 election.
"Voters are more energized than we’ve seen in any election in my lifetime," said Prof. Kousser.
Kousser said since 2016, pollsters spent a lot of time looking back at where they went wrong in key battleground states and have made adjustments to make sure they have a better picture of everyone's identity in the electorate.
He also pointed out there are far fewer undecided voters than in the last presidential election.
"Four years ago, we talked about the 'shy Trump voter' who wasn’t going to tell pollsters, who didn’t want to put a yard sign in their lawn," he said. "But now in San Diego, even in blue California, we’re seeing Trump yard signs, 'Make America Great Again' hats, so I think there’s a sense there’s less shyness on both sides."
Could there be a surge of Trump supporters at the polls on Election Day that could dramatically shift the election models?
"I think we certainly see more in-person voting of Donald Trump supporters and more mail-in voting for Joe Biden supporters. That’s been clear from every poll," he said.
CBS News currently estimates Trump leads with in-person Election Day voters by as much as 30 points. However, voter turnout would need to be large and heavily in his favor in order for him to win.
But there are unknown factors that remain. A big one is voter experience.
"Making sure if there are long lines, they are there addressed and people have a chance to stay in those lines past the deadline and cast their ballot once they’re there," said Kousser. "They want to make sure there’s no voter intimidation or any violence at our polling places. I think those are the biggest variables in our election right now."
Potential Legal Battle
President Trump has already threatened taking legal action in crucial battleground states like Pennsylvania when it comes to counting the vote.
Some experts said any post-election lawsuits will come down to how close the election is on Tuesday, Nov. 3.
Kousser said the courts have made it clear about where they stand when it comes to throwing out mail-in ballots over unsubstantiated claims of voter fraud.
"Courts have not had any sympathy for that argument," he said.
However, he said legal battles within battleground states are certainly possible.
"If we see some nail-bitingly close elections in key states [like] Pennsylvania, [which is] a place where there’s an ongoing suit and the Supreme Court deadlocked four to four on what happens if ballots arrive after Election Day, but if they are sent before Election Day, will they be counted? That's something that could come in to play by Friday if we've learned there’s still a razor-thin 0.1 or 0.2 percent margin," he said.
Kousser believes it's likely we will know who won the election by the end of the week.
"What would have to happen to make things stretch on longer than that is there would have to be some new controversy that arrives in huge numbers [like] in-person voters not being able to cast ballots in some states," he said.
Or, he added, if the polls are off by a larger margin than the 2016 election and the race ends up much tighter in key states like Michigan.
"By far the most likely scenario is the millions and millions of Americans who have been voting over the past month, and will cast a ballot on Tuesday, will decide this election," he said.