SAN DIEGO — Driving a car in California could cost you an extra $600 to $1,000 next year, according to a new study from the University of Southern California that examines both numbers and politics.
Professor Michael Mische from USC's Marshall School of Business estimates that in 2025, Californians will need to budget an additional $1,000 just to cover the rising cost of gas. He says this is primarily due to the state's push for cleaner fuel.
"Demand will decrease slightly, but supply will drop significantly, which will drive prices up," he said. "We burn through about 38 million gallons of gas a day in the state—that could get quite expensive."
The Office of Governor Gavin Newsom responded, saying "This is why it’s important to check your sources. The author of this 1.5-page “study:” was on the payroll of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia - Openly admits there is no methodology, just “author estimates” and “rough approximation."
Why are gas prices expected to rise in California in 2025?
The USC study analyzed decades of data, including information on refineries, policies, prices, consumption, production, demand, and distribution. They also considered the average number of gallons a vehicle consumes and the typical number of miles Californians drive each year.
"I am really concerned about the impact this legislation will have on low-income residents in the state. It will force people to change their consumer behavior," Professor Mische said.
CBS 8 found that many San Diegans have already begun to change their habits.
"Prices got so high, I could barely drive a while back," said Gayle Guest, from El Cajon.
Otis Bradley added, "It used to be that I would pull up to the pump and fill up. Now I put $20 in, and I have to be aware of when to stop."
Governor Newsom's Office also shared with CBS 8, that gas prices were lower this past October than they were in October 2019, during Newsom’s first year in office. The numbers were adjusted for inflation, using eia.gov.
Professor Mische estimates that in just a few months, the price per gallon could rise by anywhere from 52 cents to $1.15.
"In my car, it costs about $60 to fill up, and it lasts about five days," Guest said.
The average price for a gallon of gas in San Diego on Thursday was $4.54, while the national average, according to AAA, is $3.06.
"It's getting very frustrating," Bradley added.
According to USC, several factors are contributing to the price increase. A major refinery in Los Angeles is set to close, Assembly Bill X2-1 now requires gas stations to maintain a ready stock of supply, leading to additional costs, and the state's goal of cleaner fuel and air. The California Air Resources Board recently passed new special blend mandates for the state's low-carbon fuel standard. While many respect the good intentions behind these measures, they acknowledge that it is difficult for consumers.
"I love the concept, but I'm not sure it's the right way to go about it," Guest said.