SAN DIEGO — The El Niño is well established in the Eastern Pacific, and the latest sea surface temperatures have it growing into the strong range.
But long-range models have it above average but less than last year. I spoke with Alex Tardy, a Meteorologist with the National Weather Service about the strengthening El Niño.
"The 3.4 region is generally the heart of El Niño and it's a 1.7, so that's strong," Tardy said.
Tardy says that 1.7° Celsius above average for the past week is misleading
"In order to tip the scale on the 3 months average you'll need to be sitting at strong for at least a month," he said.
Since July, the numbers have been trending up and that 1.7°c which equals almost 4° Fahrenheit may not seem like much in air temperature.
"But we're talking about the Ocean which has a lot of capacity to absorb heat. That's a big number difference from a long-term average," Tardy said.
Tardy says El Niño's of the past have not always turned into big rain for California.
"The correlation is not 1 to 1. You just don't get a strong El Nino and then strengthening and consolidate the Jet Stream and bring more rain for every location on the West Coast," Tardy said.
Tardy shared the Winter forecast from the Climate Prediction Center
"The official forecast is barely hinting at wetter than normal conditions for December, January, and February," Tardy said.
Add to that, the wettest Winters in the past 10 years were not El Niño's
"They were La Nina 2011. La Nina 2017, La Nina 2023, last year," he said.
So, what Tardy and the National Weather Service do know is it will take more than a strong El Niño for heavy rains to return to California.
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