SAN DIEGO COUNTY, Calif. — The push to oust Governor Gavin Newsom is losing momentum, according to a new statewide poll, which also finds there are increasing fears over the possible consequences from removing Gov. Newsom from office.
These new numbers signal a sharp departure from earlier polling in the summer, which found recall supporters and opponents in a dead heat.
The non-partisan Public Policy Institute of California conducted the in-depth poll, which revealed a nearly 20-point gap between recall opponents and supporters: in favor of keeping Gov. Newsom.
The new poll finds that 58% of those likely voters surveyed statewide oppose removing Governor Newsom from office, compared to 39% who support the recall.
"His support is now strong among likely voters," said Thad Kousser, chair of UC San Diego's Political Science Department.
"There is not as much of an 'enthusiasm gap' where Democrats were disengaged from the race and Republicans super-excited," Kousser told News 8. "There is still that party split in who each side wants to vote for, but there is not that gap in who is going to participate."
The poll also finds that there are increasing voter fears over what a post-recall California might look like if Newsom is ousted, including policies surrounding the coronavirus pandemic.
Forty-one percent of those polled said California would be worse off if Newsom is recalled, compared to 33% who think things would improve in the state.
In recent days, Newsom has gone on the offensive, portraying his Republican opponents as staunch supporters of former President Trump.
"Many of them defended Donald Trump," Newsom said this week. "Including the leading candidate, Larry Elder."
Elder, a well-known conservative talk show host, has emerged as the leading candidate in the Republican field to replace Newsom, and Newsom continues to take direct aim.
"It is a bumpier road for elder than he might have imagined," said Omar Wasow, a professor of politics at Pomona College.
"As Elder emerges and as Newsom really hammers Elder and more attention is devoted to Elder, that contrast has played to Newsom's favor," Wasow said, adding that this is particularly the case in light of California's two-to-one Democratic majority over Republicans.
Still, with 12 days to go, the Newsom camp is leaving nothing to chance.
"I don't think Democrats are rushing to Gavin Newsom's aid," Kousser said. "I think Democrats are voting because they are worried about the alternative."
By Thursday evening, nearly one-quarter of all mail-in ballots have been returned statewide: 54 percent of them from registered Democratic voters, and 24 percent from Republicans, according to ballot tracking by Political Data Inc.
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